Thanks Ferg, great to have your thoughts in extended written form to contemplate as a complement to your awesome content on Crux / Opens. Will look forward to the next write ups.
Timing is right. I bought a few Nov ‘25 futures call option with a 100 dollar strike. It’s bern brutal. 🤣 But i’d like to double down especially with options prices cheaper now with thre negative sentiment. Do you think the 100 strike price is to high? For 2025 and beyond? Thanks.
Great piece! Thanks for laying out your thought process in such detail.
We'd add that a great (we think, the best) way to play the setup in energy is through royalty companies. Especially when you throw the potential for higher than "normal" inflation in the mix. We've written up a few of our favorites.
Also, looking forward to your double tap on coal. If you haven't already, check out National Resource Partners. It's a coal royalty company. Here's our take:
As a retired Petroleum Geologist I've been aware of these truthes for several years, particularly the Tight Shale reality and also the absence of of Oil Co capex into deep offshore exploration. However, this article provides an unusually deep dive and detailed examination which I haven't seen before. An excellent article - thanks 👍.
absolutely excellent write up , im rely looking forward to your oil bears as im hoping this takes longer to play out ,so i can move more money into this sector. its going to take a long time , as they not only have to drill these great targets to get oil , they will have to find them first, i feel this cycle is going to take years . even building double the amount of rigs on the water today will take years . i fell thats were we are headed . if you go through christines work in the fairway , they will have to find spots like this all over the world, wildcatting is very hit and miss .also we are burning EROI 20 to 1 oil to find EROI oil of 5 to 1 . i feel offshore drillers will be a very long cycle.................
Peter Thiel suggested on a podcast with Alex Epstein that US oil Majors have pushed the ESG movement in order to tighten supply and reap larger profits. You think there is any truth to that?
I think thats reaching. Especially with how it went down with Exxon and Engine no.1 (backed by Vanguard and Blackrock). I think it was more to do with the idea at the time that you could push ESG and outperform in the markets. Which was true for a period as ESG funds overweighted tech and removed energy, which is now the exact opposite of how I believe you want to be positioned for the next decade.
Thanks Ferg, great to have your thoughts in extended written form to contemplate as a complement to your awesome content on Crux / Opens. Will look forward to the next write ups.
Cheers, Chris
Great write-up Ferg, thank you!
An informative article. Slow position building and patience surely have been shown to me in spades regarding my position in the LNG market.
An enjoyable read.
Timing is right. I bought a few Nov ‘25 futures call option with a 100 dollar strike. It’s bern brutal. 🤣 But i’d like to double down especially with options prices cheaper now with thre negative sentiment. Do you think the 100 strike price is to high? For 2025 and beyond? Thanks.
I hope not because I own a lot of Nov2025s slightly above that... I still think its a great trade, even through my P/L to date would beg to differ.
Thanks, Ferg. Well written (easy to read) and very informative.
Thanks Antony, I appreciate that
Great piece! Thanks for laying out your thought process in such detail.
We'd add that a great (we think, the best) way to play the setup in energy is through royalty companies. Especially when you throw the potential for higher than "normal" inflation in the mix. We've written up a few of our favorites.
Also, looking forward to your double tap on coal. If you haven't already, check out National Resource Partners. It's a coal royalty company. Here's our take:
https://specialsituationinvesting.substack.com/p/another-look-at-national-resource#details
I can’t find Saipam anymore in your list, did you give up on them? Thanks for the great work you put in these mail’s. Cheers
Thanks. I still own them them, via long dated calls
As a retired Petroleum Geologist I've been aware of these truthes for several years, particularly the Tight Shale reality and also the absence of of Oil Co capex into deep offshore exploration. However, this article provides an unusually deep dive and detailed examination which I haven't seen before. An excellent article - thanks 👍.
absolutely excellent write up , im rely looking forward to your oil bears as im hoping this takes longer to play out ,so i can move more money into this sector. its going to take a long time , as they not only have to drill these great targets to get oil , they will have to find them first, i feel this cycle is going to take years . even building double the amount of rigs on the water today will take years . i fell thats were we are headed . if you go through christines work in the fairway , they will have to find spots like this all over the world, wildcatting is very hit and miss .also we are burning EROI 20 to 1 oil to find EROI oil of 5 to 1 . i feel offshore drillers will be a very long cycle.................
Peter Thiel suggested on a podcast with Alex Epstein that US oil Majors have pushed the ESG movement in order to tighten supply and reap larger profits. You think there is any truth to that?
I think thats reaching. Especially with how it went down with Exxon and Engine no.1 (backed by Vanguard and Blackrock). I think it was more to do with the idea at the time that you could push ESG and outperform in the markets. Which was true for a period as ESG funds overweighted tech and removed energy, which is now the exact opposite of how I believe you want to be positioned for the next decade.