That was a great read. "Minimum effective information" is the one I discovered/realized for myself recently. Particularly in uranium I feel I almost dug too deep and built such a strong conviction for the long term ultimate outcome that it made me too rigid in the way I've been playing this thesis. Meanwhile I've got no such difficulty in other sectors I did less DD on and it helps me manage these parts of the portfolio better.
This resonates. could have just bought CCJ in size and avoided the headache of picking jr’s diluting to infinity in questionable jurisdictions.
It’s also where I disagree with ferg in going small / illiquid: It’s always surprising where the most liquid names can trade because institutional flow can participate. And when they do participate it’s very obvious both in volume and options flow so you can position yourself accordingly vs. waiting / opportunity cost to be proven right
Yes, it's such an advantage when you can expand your timeframe. It also helps a lot when you look at the long term chart as mass human behavior i.e. enough time passing or volatility that the majority throw in the towel, just before the next leg up in price.
There is also the fact that time is going to pass regardless
You can invest on a 3 year timeframe with a decent edge
Or three 1 year time frames and get chopped up as in my experience, sub-year is bloody hard as its where all the smart money plays.
I agree mate. I am a novist to all of this (only started 4-5 years ago) and made all the classic mistakes - dear in the headlights OMG. As these markets start to become more volatile IMHO trading will become even more difficult. I will add when there is weakness but then hold.
I can agree with this. I FINALLY just recently stopped trying to trade in and out of all the oil / offshore oil / coal / uranium names to find that very tip of the edge. And just let it ride.
Thanks Ferg for an excellent article. I will keep referring back to this. However, I always thought that that the term IPO referred to an “Insider’s Private Opportunity.” 🤣
Thanks a lot Ferg! The value you provide not only by the content and research but by how transparent you are with how you approach things (i.e. google alerts for relisting in this post, how you use koifyn or chat-gtp, ...) are very valuable to me ... hope family is going good and you are having a great summer time! Cheers!
That was a great read. "Minimum effective information" is the one I discovered/realized for myself recently. Particularly in uranium I feel I almost dug too deep and built such a strong conviction for the long term ultimate outcome that it made me too rigid in the way I've been playing this thesis. Meanwhile I've got no such difficulty in other sectors I did less DD on and it helps me manage these parts of the portfolio better.
Funny how human mind works
When reading Paul Slovic's study uranium was the first thing that came to mind as well!
This resonates. could have just bought CCJ in size and avoided the headache of picking jr’s diluting to infinity in questionable jurisdictions.
It’s also where I disagree with ferg in going small / illiquid: It’s always surprising where the most liquid names can trade because institutional flow can participate. And when they do participate it’s very obvious both in volume and options flow so you can position yourself accordingly vs. waiting / opportunity cost to be proven right
Great write-up. Should I reduce my Xerox position? 🤣
HOLD! I've heard they're going into partnership with Tesla. The Xerox bot comes to find you when you need it to print something 😆
Hi Ferg, this post is pure gold, thanks for sharing.
Another banger of a writeup Ferg!
Great post Ferg. My biggest learning curve has been patience - I am an investor NOT a short term trader.
Yes, it's such an advantage when you can expand your timeframe. It also helps a lot when you look at the long term chart as mass human behavior i.e. enough time passing or volatility that the majority throw in the towel, just before the next leg up in price.
There is also the fact that time is going to pass regardless
You can invest on a 3 year timeframe with a decent edge
Or three 1 year time frames and get chopped up as in my experience, sub-year is bloody hard as its where all the smart money plays.
I agree mate. I am a novist to all of this (only started 4-5 years ago) and made all the classic mistakes - dear in the headlights OMG. As these markets start to become more volatile IMHO trading will become even more difficult. I will add when there is weakness but then hold.
I can agree with this. I FINALLY just recently stopped trying to trade in and out of all the oil / offshore oil / coal / uranium names to find that very tip of the edge. And just let it ride.
High-value-- thanks.
Excellent piece Ferg thanks
Thanks Ferg for an excellent article. I will keep referring back to this. However, I always thought that that the term IPO referred to an “Insider’s Private Opportunity.” 🤣
"Insiders private opportunity" Haha I like that!
I've heard it referred to as "Insiders Public Offloading".
Multiple times during this read I was triggered to think about the Natural Diamond market.
Most mines are bankrupt or in C&M. Will this be forever?
Is the Natural Diamond market officially over due to lab grown? you could draw the same parallels to EV's taking over or the end of Coal.
Brokers were calling the bottom 12 month ago and buying, Obviously they got it wrong. (BDM is down 90% since that bottom call).
Thoughts on the absolute capitulation of the market? I know that I've defiantly capitulated.
I've looked at diamonds, and my take is De Beers did an amazing job propping it up for so long with all their tactics and marketing.
I don't see the premium coming back.
I recently asked my wife if she would now be happy with a lab-grown rock and she said yes, as she would know for sure it's not blood diamond etc.
Which I wasn't exactly happy about, having dropped 5 figures on her engagement ring a few years ago!
So technically I've already done my ass on the diamond trade...
Ferg’s on fire 🔥 lol 👍
well said
Thanks a lot Ferg! The value you provide not only by the content and research but by how transparent you are with how you approach things (i.e. google alerts for relisting in this post, how you use koifyn or chat-gtp, ...) are very valuable to me ... hope family is going good and you are having a great summer time! Cheers!
Great Article from a sharp mind.
Thanks!
"Given A 10% Chance Of A 100x's Payoff, You Should Take That Bet Every Time"
I need to back up the truck on Dec 2027 TSLA 5p. $8 TSLAQ coupons potentially worth $500 a pop.
The vols always to high when I look at Tesla options