Fergs Finds

This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.

Article(s)

Two great commentaries well worth your time:

• Horizon Kinetics Q3 2025 Commentary

• Goehring & Rozencwajg: Moving from Carry to Anti Carry

This chart caught my attention as the Permian was the last growth engine of US shale.

Podcast/Video(s)

As a shareholder, I got a lot out of this one: No Spin, Just Tin. Brett Smith on MetalsX and Every Tin Project.

I also enjoyed Michael Cembalest’s insights in this interview: JPMorgan’s Playbook for a 10-15% Correction (or Worse) — ft. Michael Cembalest | Prof G Markets

Quote(s)

“Historically, the Fed has almost never cut rates when prices paid surveys are going up. Why would they, right?

I mean, you’d be easing into an inflationary environment.

It looks like they’re going to do that, and it’s a huge gamble. The gamble is that the inflationary increase is tariff-related, and once it makes its way through the system, it will not ignite some kind of wage-price spiral, and inflation will be coming down by the spring, and the Fed will be vindicated.

But that’s a big bet, and that’s the bet that you know that we’re looking at as we’re heading into you know the end of the year and early next year, and the markets are pricing in a couple of cuts here, uh, because of that.”

-Michael Cembalest

Tweet/notes

Another piece well worth your time reading, which Louis has kindly put no paywall on: Unraveling China’s Productivity Paradox.

Charts

A few charts from playing around with Perplexities charting ability.

Something I’m Pondering

I’m pondering whether the liquidation of the Global Offshore Oil Services Index ETF marked a bottom for oil services. Even though oil has remained under pressure, the oil services space as a whole has risen over the past few months.

The closing of the KOL ETF was certainly the bottom in the coal market with hindsight.

Cheers,

Ferg

P.S. I wrote this piece to outline a few of the rules I stick to religiously to protect myself from a dose of FOMO…