Until Covid struck, I would have agreed with the Bertrand Russel quote.
The lockdowns, the coercion, the lying, helped me understand just how dangerous ignorant “liberal” views are. They are not just a harmless contrary opinions that one should tolerate… it’s what has enabled the worst totalitarian governments in history: Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, Hitler…
The point you raise about the collapse of the Norwegian government and power exports is an important one, but I think it goes deeper than that. Europe has become far too reliant on interconnectors on the assumption that Norway is and will continue to act as Europe's battery - sending zero-carbon hydropower south when the wind doesn't blow in the North Sea or Germany. A fine strategy for individual country's but add it all up and each country is far too dependent on the same intermittent renewable energy source - wind.
100% agreed as alot of what counts as imports/exports is meaningless when its pushing overproduction of intermittent sources across borders. What matters is the baseload in the system when low/no wind and solar. Tried to dig into it in this Ferg's Finds https://traderferg.substack.com/p/fergs-finds-fec
Went to the airport in Boston in an uncomfortable and underwhelming Tesla. Went to the airport in Bangkok in a plush, smooth , elegant BYD. Superior in every respect, its hard to imagine Tesla successfully competing against them.
I think the water is quite murky surrounding the thesis of Mongolia bringing on more domestic supply to China which is sinking the seaborne met coal price. That leaves India which for the moment seems to not be 'demanding' as much iron and coal as we once presumed which is I think as you mentioned leaving a bit of an oversupply gap in the market. Not to mention coal being hated and majority of the equities taking a beating as sentiment luls further, just take a look at WHC's performance after the last 1-2 months. BTU overpaid for Anglo assets too which killed investor sentiment but hey, if you see upside in coal especially met BTU at these prices is a steal if you can find a bottom in it. I think as a specifically contrarian point is that a lot of these majors are all diving in heavily met, leaving only a small amount of plays as pure thermal, that's where the unloved cyclical gold will be sitting IMO. Sorry for the lengthy reply haha hope this helped somewhat.
Until Covid struck, I would have agreed with the Bertrand Russel quote.
The lockdowns, the coercion, the lying, helped me understand just how dangerous ignorant “liberal” views are. They are not just a harmless contrary opinions that one should tolerate… it’s what has enabled the worst totalitarian governments in history: Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, Hitler…
The point you raise about the collapse of the Norwegian government and power exports is an important one, but I think it goes deeper than that. Europe has become far too reliant on interconnectors on the assumption that Norway is and will continue to act as Europe's battery - sending zero-carbon hydropower south when the wind doesn't blow in the North Sea or Germany. A fine strategy for individual country's but add it all up and each country is far too dependent on the same intermittent renewable energy source - wind.
100% agreed as alot of what counts as imports/exports is meaningless when its pushing overproduction of intermittent sources across borders. What matters is the baseload in the system when low/no wind and solar. Tried to dig into it in this Ferg's Finds https://traderferg.substack.com/p/fergs-finds-fec
sorry repost. A s a contrarian you'd no doubt be looking at palladium and platinum. About to break from a long bear market. SBSW.
Yes, I love the PGMs investment angle. Spilled a lot of digital ink on it in this post: https://traderferg.substack.com/p/the-new-energy-vehicles-pivot
Went to the airport in Boston in an uncomfortable and underwhelming Tesla. Went to the airport in Bangkok in a plush, smooth , elegant BYD. Superior in every respect, its hard to imagine Tesla successfully competing against them.
Coal equities really taking a beating of late. BTU down 20% in Jan. Any ideas what's driving it?
Prices of met and thermal
and what's driving that...? oversupply presumably. Any reason to expect that to change?
I think the water is quite murky surrounding the thesis of Mongolia bringing on more domestic supply to China which is sinking the seaborne met coal price. That leaves India which for the moment seems to not be 'demanding' as much iron and coal as we once presumed which is I think as you mentioned leaving a bit of an oversupply gap in the market. Not to mention coal being hated and majority of the equities taking a beating as sentiment luls further, just take a look at WHC's performance after the last 1-2 months. BTU overpaid for Anglo assets too which killed investor sentiment but hey, if you see upside in coal especially met BTU at these prices is a steal if you can find a bottom in it. I think as a specifically contrarian point is that a lot of these majors are all diving in heavily met, leaving only a small amount of plays as pure thermal, that's where the unloved cyclical gold will be sitting IMO. Sorry for the lengthy reply haha hope this helped somewhat.