Sure its investable. The question is how attractive are the opportunities relative to stuff I've been investing in i.e. commodities. I think you do well in the likes of Alibaba from here, but I don't see nearly the upside as I do in the energy space.
Of course it's investable. You cannot pay much attention to what you read in the mainstream western press. There are plenty of excellent Substacks which are unearthing lots of cheap stocks with long growth runways ahead. For a balanced view on China in general have a look at Lost in Translation, Robert Wu's Substack.
About EVs and semiconductors: it used to be that cars used 10-year-old chips because they had known, solid reliability specs. I don't know what the proportion these days is for new v.s. middle-aged v.s. old technology. These "technology levels" are manufactured by very different facilities in different countries.
Something else I've been thinking about, is coal as a hedge to uranium. If there was a large negative event for uranium, coal would moon. I also wonder, even if there is a negative uranium incident, how much of an impact would this have. Sure, short term it wouldn't be pretty. However medium to long term, mans hunger for energy and the math's around nuclear energy will not stop this snowball?
Big Howard Marks fan, any would be investor, will do well to consume all they can of Mr. Marks. Like Morgan Housel, his knowledge, particularly regarding the psychology of investing/money is worth the price of admission.
Hi Ferg,
Do you think China is investable in some way?
I just think there is an unnecessary amount of negative press about it.
Sure its investable. The question is how attractive are the opportunities relative to stuff I've been investing in i.e. commodities. I think you do well in the likes of Alibaba from here, but I don't see nearly the upside as I do in the energy space.
Of course it's investable. You cannot pay much attention to what you read in the mainstream western press. There are plenty of excellent Substacks which are unearthing lots of cheap stocks with long growth runways ahead. For a balanced view on China in general have a look at Lost in Translation, Robert Wu's Substack.
Agreed with sentiment that negative there will be some bargains to be had if you know where to look (which I don't in China...)
About EVs and semiconductors: it used to be that cars used 10-year-old chips because they had known, solid reliability specs. I don't know what the proportion these days is for new v.s. middle-aged v.s. old technology. These "technology levels" are manufactured by very different facilities in different countries.
Something else I've been thinking about, is coal as a hedge to uranium. If there was a large negative event for uranium, coal would moon. I also wonder, even if there is a negative uranium incident, how much of an impact would this have. Sure, short term it wouldn't be pretty. However medium to long term, mans hunger for energy and the math's around nuclear energy will not stop this snowball?
Big Howard Marks fan, any would be investor, will do well to consume all they can of Mr. Marks. Like Morgan Housel, his knowledge, particularly regarding the psychology of investing/money is worth the price of admission.
Always great little nuggets and quotes man
Your right. Need to stay focused.