31 Comments

what a banger of an article!!!!!!!!!!!! so glad to see you back, you've gone awol lately!

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Cheers, yes definitely went AWOL with having a new born at the start of the year

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yeah that little dude is super cute congrats!

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Great Article. On the demand side I would add that one heat pump installed per houshold would double the energy need of that houshold. Germany and France are allin on heat pumps.One Ev per household increses the nead by 40%.

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Double the energy need or the electricity need of that household?

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the electricity need, if one assumes typical european consumption

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I thought heat pumps were more efficient?

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Ferg, great article.

CONSOL Energy is also a new entrant to the "buyback party."

https://specialsituationinvesting.substack.com/p/the-cannibal-coal-company-consol#details

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Spot on Ferg, the last 4 quarterly dividends from Terracom amount to more than double of what I paid for the shares!

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Awesome well done!

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Congrats on the Doomberg retweet. My first intro to your work. This early part deserves a gold clap.

“I could go off on a massive tangent here.

So I will.” 🤣

I’ll read on…

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* golf clap!

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Great read!

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Thanks Marc

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The coal / LNG comparison is memorable. Great stuff TF.

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I live in Oz. I'd like to think that there might be a new mining friendly govt after the next election in QLD.

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I won't hold my breath, as there is nothing as permanent as a "temporary" Government tax...

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Any thoughts on the influence on the suppy-demand-dynamic, if india goes from importer to exporter of coal (https://www.mining-technology.com/news/india-to-start-exporting-coal/)?

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Maybe but so far they haven't even kept up with domestic demand.

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Another excellent note.

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What about Thungela. South Africa too crazy?

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"There is the “learning curve”, which is really just a bunch of academics extrapolating the shit out of prior trends to make their models work while ignoring all physical and economic realities (and the fact their 30-year projections were wrong in year 1)."

Yes! "If we assume productivity gains of just 10%/year we can eliminate the need for coal in 10 years!!!" Nullifying the laws of physics via simple keystroke.

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Im curious if you have done an article on the current state of affairs with the various uranium players? I know Paladin is one of your main uranium positions but where can Paladin go from here given its already capped at $2.5B?

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What about Indonesia, how likely is government to increase taxation of coal mines?

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Chinese supply seems key as they are the biggest miner. In 2015 China oversupply of coal was vast and destroyed the industry. Did last year's price surge have any impact on Chinese supply outlook?

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Anyone thoughts about Alliance Resource Partners? Agree with Ferg here that coal is a tobacco company setup

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Haven’t checked ARLP yet. But we like NRP.

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