31 Comments
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Noova73's avatar

what a banger of an article!!!!!!!!!!!! so glad to see you back, you've gone awol lately!

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Ferg's avatar

Cheers, yes definitely went AWOL with having a new born at the start of the year

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Noova73's avatar

yeah that little dude is super cute congrats!

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Markus's avatar

Great Article. On the demand side I would add that one heat pump installed per houshold would double the energy need of that houshold. Germany and France are allin on heat pumps.One Ev per household increses the nead by 40%.

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Tian Wen's avatar

Double the energy need or the electricity need of that household?

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Markus's avatar

the electricity need, if one assumes typical european consumption

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Ryan C's avatar

I thought heat pumps were more efficient?

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Six Bravo's avatar

Ferg, great article.

CONSOL Energy is also a new entrant to the "buyback party."

https://specialsituationinvesting.substack.com/p/the-cannibal-coal-company-consol#details

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Stano's avatar

Spot on Ferg, the last 4 quarterly dividends from Terracom amount to more than double of what I paid for the shares!

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Ferg's avatar

Awesome well done!

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Gambatte's avatar

Congrats on the Doomberg retweet. My first intro to your work. This early part deserves a gold clap.

“I could go off on a massive tangent here.

So I will.” 🤣

I’ll read on…

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Gambatte's avatar

* golf clap!

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Marc's avatar

Great read!

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Ferg's avatar

Thanks Marc

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Douglas Marolla's avatar

The coal / LNG comparison is memorable. Great stuff TF.

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Christian's avatar

I live in Oz. I'd like to think that there might be a new mining friendly govt after the next election in QLD.

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Ferg's avatar

I won't hold my breath, as there is nothing as permanent as a "temporary" Government tax...

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Chez Macro's avatar

Any thoughts on the influence on the suppy-demand-dynamic, if india goes from importer to exporter of coal (https://www.mining-technology.com/news/india-to-start-exporting-coal/)?

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Ferg's avatar

Maybe but so far they haven't even kept up with domestic demand.

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Cestrian Capital Research, Inc's avatar

Another excellent note.

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Gabriel S's avatar

What about Thungela. South Africa too crazy?

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Cliff's avatar

"There is the “learning curve”, which is really just a bunch of academics extrapolating the shit out of prior trends to make their models work while ignoring all physical and economic realities (and the fact their 30-year projections were wrong in year 1)."

Yes! "If we assume productivity gains of just 10%/year we can eliminate the need for coal in 10 years!!!" Nullifying the laws of physics via simple keystroke.

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FlowState Investing's avatar

Im curious if you have done an article on the current state of affairs with the various uranium players? I know Paladin is one of your main uranium positions but where can Paladin go from here given its already capped at $2.5B?

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mendo's avatar

What about Indonesia, how likely is government to increase taxation of coal mines?

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Max's avatar

Chinese supply seems key as they are the biggest miner. In 2015 China oversupply of coal was vast and destroyed the industry. Did last year's price surge have any impact on Chinese supply outlook?

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Martin's avatar

Anyone thoughts about Alliance Resource Partners? Agree with Ferg here that coal is a tobacco company setup

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Six Bravo's avatar

Haven’t checked ARLP yet. But we like NRP.

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