Going from f#cked to sort of shitty
Selling one position, revisiting another and discussing a new position.
No, the new trade is not a gold or silver company… yet I’m still doing my homework as my impression of most mining companies, particularly juniors, isn’t great.
So, it should come as no surprise that I’ll be discussing OSVs, jack-ups, and semi-subs.
Before I dig into that, I've received a few messages about my take on the current geopolitical setup, i.e., the Middle East, war, etc.
I could try to sound smart, but my predictions would be no better than the below turkeys economists with rates.
Listening to these “takes” can be interesting i.e. “I need to stay informed”, but it doesn’t help us make money.
Plus if all goes to shit, you probably want to be long oil anyway.
MMA Offshore ltd
I’ve sold out of MMA Offshore (I sat on a limit order for $2.62 until filled).
Yes, I’m pissed off as it wasn’t even halfway to where I might have even considered lightening up based on replacement cost.
Some table napkin math would be $615m EV / 20 OSVS =$30m per OSV against replacement north of $70m (TDW is at $26m per OSV for comparison).
Why not wait for the vote? As there is a chance retail pushes back with some larger holders being vocal about how crappy the deal is for shareholders: Shareholder slams MMA Offshore $1 billion takeover.
I don’t feel like waiting until July, when the stock will be stuck in a holding pattern and likely to be slammed if the takeover falls through.
MMA shareholders will have an opportunity to vote on the Scheme at the Scheme Meeting, which is anticipated to be held in late June to mid July 2024.
I’m currently seeing a lot of opportunities, be it tin, which is running like it stole something.
Or Borr Drilling, which hasn’t done much running, more run over.
