Thanks! I needed the comment about that 4 kid envy! .. I have 6 kids, and will be home H1 with the 1yr old.. in the middle of it all, it's easy to lose sight of what you described, the bright side of having (many) kids.
I'm single and just went 38. By personality a lone wolf, always have been. In the last few years the impact of living alone hits harder with each year. If you're younger, in your 20s or just went 30, time to get a partner. Don't overthink what freedoms you will loose. I have them all and they don't matter when you see your peers carrying their kids around. Then you know you're a failure. Even if having a family was never your objective you will feel that way, its biologically imprinted. And instead of having time with your kid, actually you will start to procrastinate or work even more because you don't know what to do else.
The “data poor vs data rich regime” point reminded me of something I’ve been thinking about for a while in relation to US stock market history. Often, people use the performance of US stocks from the early or mid 1800s to now to justify the view that “stocks always go up in the long term”. Also, there’s the expectation of an ~8% return over the long term. A critical tailwind for that period was that the US was maturing into one of the most successful empires in history. The economic growth, and therefore asset appreciation, would of course be great. Well, what happens to asset prices in an empire when it reaches its peak global influence and start to decline? It definitely could be argued that the US passed its peak economic and military power relative to the rest of the world, especially with an ascendant China. I highly doubt the asset performance of the “descending from the peak” phase of empire is as good as the “maturing to the peak” phase. I have no good sense of how the timing would work for that. The “descent from the peak” could take many decades (even centuries?). The Romans maintained power for many hundreds of years even after they had reached the peak. The Dutch and British empires might be good examples of how the regime shift from “ascending empire” to “descending empire” affected their economies and asset prices. Regardless, I’m highly skeptical of the ~8% return in perpetuity expectation for stocks.
100% nailed it Ferg. Winning for me is having enough money to stay home and home-school my son. I heard him (6 years old) tell another person his dad can lift a boulder. I can't but still knowing you're his person is the best feeling in the world.
This perfectly captures what separates the winners from the noise - position sizing + conviction + time. The mental discipline to hold when everything's screaming at you to react is what compounding is built on. Most traders chase the thrill; the systematic ones chase the compounding curves. Your findings always highlight that edge isn't about being right more often—it's about sizing properly when you are.
Mike Green talks about money entering the market like a Ponzi scheme, but when you dig farther, you will see his positions in the Simplify Fund being long us tech, shorting gold… I don’t know… is there something I’m missing?
Thanks! I needed the comment about that 4 kid envy! .. I have 6 kids, and will be home H1 with the 1yr old.. in the middle of it all, it's easy to lose sight of what you described, the bright side of having (many) kids.
I'm single and just went 38. By personality a lone wolf, always have been. In the last few years the impact of living alone hits harder with each year. If you're younger, in your 20s or just went 30, time to get a partner. Don't overthink what freedoms you will loose. I have them all and they don't matter when you see your peers carrying their kids around. Then you know you're a failure. Even if having a family was never your objective you will feel that way, its biologically imprinted. And instead of having time with your kid, actually you will start to procrastinate or work even more because you don't know what to do else.
The “data poor vs data rich regime” point reminded me of something I’ve been thinking about for a while in relation to US stock market history. Often, people use the performance of US stocks from the early or mid 1800s to now to justify the view that “stocks always go up in the long term”. Also, there’s the expectation of an ~8% return over the long term. A critical tailwind for that period was that the US was maturing into one of the most successful empires in history. The economic growth, and therefore asset appreciation, would of course be great. Well, what happens to asset prices in an empire when it reaches its peak global influence and start to decline? It definitely could be argued that the US passed its peak economic and military power relative to the rest of the world, especially with an ascendant China. I highly doubt the asset performance of the “descending from the peak” phase of empire is as good as the “maturing to the peak” phase. I have no good sense of how the timing would work for that. The “descent from the peak” could take many decades (even centuries?). The Romans maintained power for many hundreds of years even after they had reached the peak. The Dutch and British empires might be good examples of how the regime shift from “ascending empire” to “descending empire” affected their economies and asset prices. Regardless, I’m highly skeptical of the ~8% return in perpetuity expectation for stocks.
Can't wait to be a Dad (still a few years away I think..)!
Hoping for 3 minimum 😅
100% nailed it Ferg. Winning for me is having enough money to stay home and home-school my son. I heard him (6 years old) tell another person his dad can lift a boulder. I can't but still knowing you're his person is the best feeling in the world.
This perfectly captures what separates the winners from the noise - position sizing + conviction + time. The mental discipline to hold when everything's screaming at you to react is what compounding is built on. Most traders chase the thrill; the systematic ones chase the compounding curves. Your findings always highlight that edge isn't about being right more often—it's about sizing properly when you are.
Love the write up today. Great looking fam! Clearly your boy got his good looks from his mom
Haha not going to debate that
Yes. Having a family was my best decision ever.
One question to ask, if I may.
Mike Green talks about money entering the market like a Ponzi scheme, but when you dig farther, you will see his positions in the Simplify Fund being long us tech, shorting gold… I don’t know… is there something I’m missing?