Ferg's Finds

This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.

Article

China Will Burn More Coal As It Supplies “Green Energy” Technologies to the World

“The absurdity is that while the United States is destroying its own power generation sector and economy due to Biden’s climate agenda and desire to reduce U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, China is building more coal-fired power plants, increasing its carbon dioxide emissions and improving its economy and standard of living for its residents. Americans need to wake up to the U.S. energy demise before it is too late.”

I also found this a great read: How to Tap the Competitive Advantage of Being ‘Bad’

Podcast/Video

I found Adam’s take on the Permian basin particularly interesting: GM42: What's Coming for Oil, Gas, Gold & Metals ft. Adam Rozencwajg

Quote

“He who works all day, has no time to make money.” 

- John D. Rockefeller

Tweet

This thread on wind power was great.

Reality and the “learning curve” are now going in opposite directions.

Charts

For potential oil supply from 2022-2028, offshore deepwater is where it is at.

Something I'm Pondering

How wind power scales from here?

They were supposedly focused on profits, with orders and investment looking grim for 2022: Wind-turbine makers put 'profits over volume' as orders decline

Yet this didn’t materialise with all the companies having blowout losses.

Vestas ran a -8% profit margin (revised down from -5% below) after raising prices by more than 30%.

Siemens withdrawing profit guidance is worth a read.

“We are also reviewing assumptions critical to the existing business plans given productivity improvements are not materializing to the extent previously expected.”

It’s not like Siemens is an outlier either, as all these wind turbine manufacturers have been lighting money on fire lately.

Now I’m going to suggest something blasphemous to the Green ideology. What if oil heads well north of $100 per barrel and cost inflation explodes even higher? Could we see a scenario where the economics get so bad that this whole sector follows the blue curve decline (could only find onshore) with their relatively short life spans (particularly Siemens…)

Yes, crazy, I know, with the consensus being the yellow build-out.

It does bring this quote to mind.

“When everybody thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong, because no one is thinking.” - Humphrey Neil

I hope you’re all having a great week.

Cheers,

Ferg 

P.S. I’m parting ways with Crux Investor and plan to continue doing my show here on Substack. I’m going to launch and detail everything tomorrow.

For those of you that became paid subscribers as soon as I turned on the paywall yesterday, I appreciate you! (I’m going to offer a 25% discount for a few days, so please use that if you want to sign up now).