Ferg's Finds
This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.
Article(s)
Maybe I’m just slow off the mark with this one, but I didn’t realise BYD was already knocking out sodium-ion batteries with a 305km range and price tag of $11,600 USD.
BYD Seagull interior revealed ahead of April 18 launch
Two versions of Seagull:
A 55-kW (75 hp) electric motor with a 30-kWh sodium-ion battery for 305 km of range
A 75-kW (102 hp) electric motor with a 38-kWh LFP battery for 405 km range.
According to reports, the sodium-ion battery will be mass-produced in Q2 2023, and the first cars to get it will be the BYD Qin, Dolphin, and Seagull. Sodium batteries have been a thing in China recently – Volkswagen’s Chinese joint venture with JAC revealed the Sehol EX10, the first vehicle with a sodium-ion battery, in February 2023.
Podcast/Video
Gone With the Wind: Denmark’s Stalled Energy Transition I found this interesting as Denmark has the best conditions for producing wind energy globally and despite 30 years of subsidies, they could never achieve exit velocity, and the companies are now in deep trouble financially.
Quote
“As usual they extrapolated it rather than question its durability. As in so many of the examples in this book, for most people, psychology-driven extrapolation took the place of an understanding of and belief in cyclicality.”
― Howard Marks
Tweet
This is an old thread I did back in 2020, which I’m revisiting as I feels to me like we may be nearing the point of passive coming unstuck.
Charts
How can passive sell/rebalance out of something it has bid up to nose bleed levels when their is no one big enough to absorb their selling?
Active is a shadow of its former self and is going to be busy investing in the outperforming sectors passive needs to rebalance into.
Something I'm Pondering
I’m pondering how long governments could bail out renewables and EVs (ontop of subsidies) before inflation really gets out of hand.
Renewables are extremely inflation sensitive so the harder governments push the more the economics of these projects implodes.
Hope you’ve had a great weekend.
Cheers,
Ferg
P.S. I had a great chat with Tom Bachrach CIO of PFH Capital, talking compounders, exotic equities/situations, and of course coal.
If you’re interested in my story and why I started this Substack, you can read the story here.
As far as I can tell, back in April BYD announced its intention to sell a sodium battery powered Seagull at some point in the future, but you can’t actually buy one.
Sooner or later people are going to make Compassionate and Hardship Withdrawals from their 401Ks, or cut their contributions because they need the money, or get laid off, or...