I really appreciate how you keep yourself focused on keeping the main thing the main thing. These reminders from you help me to stay on track as well, and the "shiny object syndrome" loses some of it's grip on me.
The post on position sizing is super relevant. I think it has been one of the biggest milestones I have achieved over the last few years in investing, realizing that I want it small enough to not kill me, and big enough to matter if it really takes off. Finding this balance is magic.
I have had some real winners that could have had a much larger impact on my portfolio and net worth but I took lottery ticket (very small) bets and while they still helped me quite a bit, it could have been substantial if I had sized them the way I do now. Your 3% to 5% range makes a ton of sense and the math definitely pencils out for the risk/reward balance.
Agree. For me 3 to 5% is also the sweet spot. I haven't figured out how to approach this if I build a full position (5%) and a stupid drawdown happens. Ideally, I would like to increase my position then. Let's say to 8%. But of course - if I am wrong then - it's even more expensive.
This is the hardest question to answer. I guess for me it has a lot to do with why has it drawn down so much? If it is a one off liquidity squeeze I.e. March2020 then I’ve pushed positions up to 10%. But if it’s just grinding lower I usually hold myself to 6% max. Which is also a reflection of the fact I like to hang out in crappy cyclical companies… If were talking SPUT or PPLT I think it’s fine to push well past 5% as don’t have all the operational risk
Really appreciate the insight regarding the circular logic of being too heavy cash for an extended period of time; it creates a mental sunk cost that you described well
You shared much wisdom in this article. The old truths never die.
Psychologically I find it difficult to add to winning positions and sell the losing ones, ie cut the weeds and trim the roses. 100% gain initially seems miraculous until one watches the 1 bagger turn 5, 10, 20 and then realize how much money one left on the table. "Nobody ever went broke taking a profit" is true for trading experts, but for mere mortals it is usually best to let convicted winners ride.
Why own cash when you can own a diversified sub-portfolio of liquid inexpensive stocks? It's ok to sell something at a loss to get into a better opportunity so owning enough of some conservative and liquid stocks should always be preferred to cash imho. Have some cheap, boring stocks.
I really appreciate how you keep yourself focused on keeping the main thing the main thing. These reminders from you help me to stay on track as well, and the "shiny object syndrome" loses some of it's grip on me.
The post on position sizing is super relevant. I think it has been one of the biggest milestones I have achieved over the last few years in investing, realizing that I want it small enough to not kill me, and big enough to matter if it really takes off. Finding this balance is magic.
I have had some real winners that could have had a much larger impact on my portfolio and net worth but I took lottery ticket (very small) bets and while they still helped me quite a bit, it could have been substantial if I had sized them the way I do now. Your 3% to 5% range makes a ton of sense and the math definitely pencils out for the risk/reward balance.
Cheers brother!
Agree. For me 3 to 5% is also the sweet spot. I haven't figured out how to approach this if I build a full position (5%) and a stupid drawdown happens. Ideally, I would like to increase my position then. Let's say to 8%. But of course - if I am wrong then - it's even more expensive.
How do you approach this?
This is the hardest question to answer. I guess for me it has a lot to do with why has it drawn down so much? If it is a one off liquidity squeeze I.e. March2020 then I’ve pushed positions up to 10%. But if it’s just grinding lower I usually hold myself to 6% max. Which is also a reflection of the fact I like to hang out in crappy cyclical companies… If were talking SPUT or PPLT I think it’s fine to push well past 5% as don’t have all the operational risk
Makes sense. Thanks for sharing your thought process.
Fascinating post on the handicappers. Brilliant, Bravo Ferg!
Really appreciate the insight regarding the circular logic of being too heavy cash for an extended period of time; it creates a mental sunk cost that you described well
You shared much wisdom in this article. The old truths never die.
Psychologically I find it difficult to add to winning positions and sell the losing ones, ie cut the weeds and trim the roses. 100% gain initially seems miraculous until one watches the 1 bagger turn 5, 10, 20 and then realize how much money one left on the table. "Nobody ever went broke taking a profit" is true for trading experts, but for mere mortals it is usually best to let convicted winners ride.
Excellent piece. Especially enjoyed the part about holding cash and its psychological implications
Super stuff !!
Cheers Ferg.
Why own cash when you can own a diversified sub-portfolio of liquid inexpensive stocks? It's ok to sell something at a loss to get into a better opportunity so owning enough of some conservative and liquid stocks should always be preferred to cash imho. Have some cheap, boring stocks.