I am completely in accord with the cyclicality of things and the fact that as cycles stretch one way or the other, there is usually a hue and cry that things have changed forever. I am old enough to know they haven't
On AI euphoria and "this time is different" sentiment: I'm a single data point/perspective, and have the bulk of my investments in energy for all the reasons we discuss here. But after spending 20+ years as a "white collar" open source human rights researcher (meaning 90% of my sources are freely accessible online with no pay wall), I found that in a few weekends of designing a ChatGPT 4 subset, teaching it to apply the core principles I use, it can do foundational research tasks that took me 5 hours in 1 min. It still needs a human to examine the results, add nuance, source/factcheck, construct papers and give presentations. But the short of it is, after a few weekends of tinkering I have the equivalent of a team of 3 nearly free grad/law school-level interns (about equivalent output from what I've seen from humans with that level of experience). Who knows what happens from here, but I think the impact so far is it already takes that expensive labor and transfers the lifting to tech companies, which they most definitely can charge for. It will be interesting to see what happens when these things truly blossom and having an AI intern costs far more than $20/mo, but is still well worth paying for. I think profits are poised to grow, despite the hype and dotcom comparisons. Even if there's a colossal SP500 smack, it's hard to see Alphabet, for example, not continue its climb. Of course, I'm playing the energy side for all the reasons we're here (and hopefully leaving the salaried world before I'm dead weight).
Hi Ferg - a quick question after just reading your excellent piece on coal; was there a specific catalyst that triggered the large sell off across all coal names in the last 2 days? Cheers john.
Great quotes in this week's finds. I'm feeling this one: “The maturation of every investor starts with absorbing almost everything and ends with filtering almost everything.”
Hi ferg, great work as always. One thing I'm wondering if I was to become a member of your substact. Do we have access to the names your in and do you let us know when your pulling the trigger on buys and sells etc.
Hi ferg, thanks for the reply. Is this in the monthly subscription or would I need to pay for the higher subscription fee to obtain this information.
You must be loving life!! living the life you have made for yourself, wife and nipper and I salute you so well done on that! Keep doing what your doing and thanks for putting good content out to us and helping us all on our investing journeys also. So thank you very much my friend.
I am completely in accord with the cyclicality of things and the fact that as cycles stretch one way or the other, there is usually a hue and cry that things have changed forever. I am old enough to know they haven't
On AI euphoria and "this time is different" sentiment: I'm a single data point/perspective, and have the bulk of my investments in energy for all the reasons we discuss here. But after spending 20+ years as a "white collar" open source human rights researcher (meaning 90% of my sources are freely accessible online with no pay wall), I found that in a few weekends of designing a ChatGPT 4 subset, teaching it to apply the core principles I use, it can do foundational research tasks that took me 5 hours in 1 min. It still needs a human to examine the results, add nuance, source/factcheck, construct papers and give presentations. But the short of it is, after a few weekends of tinkering I have the equivalent of a team of 3 nearly free grad/law school-level interns (about equivalent output from what I've seen from humans with that level of experience). Who knows what happens from here, but I think the impact so far is it already takes that expensive labor and transfers the lifting to tech companies, which they most definitely can charge for. It will be interesting to see what happens when these things truly blossom and having an AI intern costs far more than $20/mo, but is still well worth paying for. I think profits are poised to grow, despite the hype and dotcom comparisons. Even if there's a colossal SP500 smack, it's hard to see Alphabet, for example, not continue its climb. Of course, I'm playing the energy side for all the reasons we're here (and hopefully leaving the salaried world before I'm dead weight).
Hi Ferg - a quick question after just reading your excellent piece on coal; was there a specific catalyst that triggered the large sell off across all coal names in the last 2 days? Cheers john.
Hey Ferg, with the recent price action in Nuscale have you reconsidered entering or are you not considering this stock anymore?
Great quotes in this week's finds. I'm feeling this one: “The maturation of every investor starts with absorbing almost everything and ends with filtering almost everything.”
Hi ferg, great work as always. One thing I'm wondering if I was to become a member of your substact. Do we have access to the names your in and do you let us know when your pulling the trigger on buys and sells etc.
Kind regards Keith
Hey Keith, yes and yes. It's pretty much all my Substack is about in companies I own or am thinking about buying (their sectors), and exit plans.
Cheers Ferg
Hi ferg, thanks for the reply. Is this in the monthly subscription or would I need to pay for the higher subscription fee to obtain this information.
You must be loving life!! living the life you have made for yourself, wife and nipper and I salute you so well done on that! Keep doing what your doing and thanks for putting good content out to us and helping us all on our investing journeys also. So thank you very much my friend.
Kind regards Keith