This chart is doing a lot of work quietly. The overlap between China's export restrictions and Hormuz-blocked supply isn't additive — it's multiplicative in certain commodities. Urea at 90% Chinese export restriction on top of a 35% global supply block, DAP/MAP phosphate at 97% — these are agricultural input markets, which means the next leg of this shock doesn't show up in energy prices, it shows up in food prices six to twelve months from now. The ceasefire narrative has no answer for that part of the transmission.
I'm new to Substack — I write about financial topics and would love to hear your thoughts on my work if you get a chance.
In regards to CT’s comments on sulfuric acid’s use in ag products/ food shortages. Asia and Africa look to take biggest hits.
In the China chart, I’m not clear if you add the two bars together or if one is a subset of the other. Which is it?
Yes add the Hormuz blockage + China exports together (minus whats not restricted)
In the first chart. Hope that is the one what you mean, the war has restricted 48% of global world supply in sulfuric acid,
so China has restricted 50% of their exports, from 36% to 18%. And so on. That’s what I understand.
Yes the first chart. So add the two bars together for the total that is now off the market?
Thinking about African investment Bannerman
This chart is doing a lot of work quietly. The overlap between China's export restrictions and Hormuz-blocked supply isn't additive — it's multiplicative in certain commodities. Urea at 90% Chinese export restriction on top of a 35% global supply block, DAP/MAP phosphate at 97% — these are agricultural input markets, which means the next leg of this shock doesn't show up in energy prices, it shows up in food prices six to twelve months from now. The ceasefire narrative has no answer for that part of the transmission.
I'm new to Substack — I write about financial topics and would love to hear your thoughts on my work if you get a chance.
Wow. Spain on that chart. Wonder how good the sample size is?