11 Comments
User's avatar
Beta Snitch's avatar

The human bottleneck is real, no shortage of accountants, lawyers, economists, consultants, advisers, business managers, bankers and so on... When it comes to actually getting something done that doesn't involve pixels on a screen, talking or writing, ie real matter in the physical world then tough luck.

Gary Mersham's avatar

Happy Christmas Ferg and family. That'd be you in the Santa outfit, no?

Keith R.'s avatar

Excellent piece as always . Would you be kind enough to share your portfolio as to how you are playing the”China” control . Thanks and happy holidays

Ferg's avatar

Hi Keith, the positions themselves are all here: https://traderferg.substack.com/p/positionportfolio-directory?utm_source=publication-search with each having a link below where I went over the position

Keith R.'s avatar

You are the best thank you as always !!!!

Keith R.'s avatar

Thank you Ferg, I am sorry I am not familiar with how to access the information , do I type that phone number into what’s app ? Is it a seminar ? Group call ?? Sorry thanks for your help

Mining Valuation Assistant's avatar

Russia was projected to have similiar issues with Soviet talent and knowledge dying off… but sanctions and isolation are forcing them to reinstitutionalize and become self sufficient again. Great write-up, thanks.

D Bergy's avatar

The U.S. could do what they did to gain an edge in the space race. Poach the talent as they did with the Germans at the wars end.

If the Chinese technology talent is that much better, offer them a deal they can’t refuse. I doubt they all are that committed to their communist system with its personal limitations. Put the incentives in front of them. They will find a way over here.

American Psycho's avatar

"Unless the Fed and/or Treasury pre-emptively begin post-COVID-sized liquidity injections, financial conditions in the global economy will likely continue to tighten until a crisis forces said “nuclear printing.”

Starting in early 2026, the US government will begin garnishing wages of individuals in default (https://www.zerohedge.com/political/education-department-start-garnishing-wages-defaulted-student-loan-borrowers-january). In a recent-ish discussion on Market Huddle (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QN5Es9V1HE) between Le Shrub and Paolo Macro, Paolo highlighted that some 30% of borrowers are in a 90+ day default and that the Dept of Energy can garnish up to 30% of their wages. Who knows how many individuals have their wages garnished, but on paper this move further tightens liquidity and has a deflationary effect.

Happy New Year, Ferg!

p.s. This article just dropped regarding student loan repayments:

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/education-department-has-rejected-over-300000-requests-lower-student-loan

RJ & AS DeLotto's avatar

...a quibble, perhaps: The US has ceased to produce the "STEM" talent, but the PRC seems to have stopped producing much by way of babies at about the same time. I think that, once again, demography is destiny. (NONE of my academic training has given me a clue as to how one has a growing economy and a shrinking population.)

Erie dearie's avatar

Im not surprised about China getting tech leadership over the U.S. Between Chinese university students bringing it back to China, intellectual property theft and pushing young white men out of college, this was inevitable.