Ferg's Finds

This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.

Article(s)

Housel has a way with words: Cumulative vs. Cyclical Knowledge

Podcast/Video

Both of these interviews were great:

VRIC Media with Louis Gave and David Hay: An Unprecedented GOLD Bull Market: Why This Time Really is Different

MacroVoices #450 Dr. Anas Alhajji: Oil, Middle-East Politics & China

Quote

“Knowledge in some fields is cumulative. In other fields it’s cyclical (at best).”

-Jim Grant

Tweet

China and India have told the world how much coal generation they plan to add. So IEA ignoring it is just comical at this point.

Well, now they have slipped it in the footnotes, so I guess that's an improvement!

Charts

I guess you've got to let IEA have their victory lap when they get one of the last 14 oil demand forecasts correct.

End of the Oil Age Beckons for Top Forecaster

Something I'm Pondering

I'm questioning the durability of the recent ramp in LNG truck sales extrapolation. We are seeing countless articles claiming it will cap Chinese oil demand growth.

Oil Gives Way to Gas for China’s Trucks as LNG Prices Cool

Dr. Anas Alhajji pointed out the decline is mostly due to slow economic growth:

About 75% of the decline in China’s oil demand is related to slow economic growth and 25% is related to the penetration of EVs and LNG trucks. But even this percentage is biased because it reflects a period of slow economic growth. That means the impact of EVs and LNG trucks is lower than 25%.

This short clip was interesting (h/t to @ICBarrett)

LNG truck sales all but dried up with 2021 and 2022 LNG prices.

Surging heavy-duty LNG truck sales boost LNG consumption in China

I hope you’re all having a great week.

Cheers,

Ferg 

P.S. This week, I had the pleasure of interviewing the two best analysts in the coal business, Matt Warder and Joe Aldina, from thecoaltrader.com.

It was a fun hour and a half of me unloading all my coal questions on these veterans!