Ferg's Finds
This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.
Article
This article involves some extreme mental gymnastics in painting natural gas as the villain and wind and solar as the solution: America’s Biggest Power Source Wasn’t Built for Extreme Weather
Granted, when you read the disclaimer, it makes more sense.
Podcast/Video
I’ve been enjoying Mike Alkin getting back on the podcast circuit, as he is my go-to guy for the cold hard facts on the uranium market.
-Mike Alkin: The Ultimate Uranium Crash Course Value Hive Podcast
Quote
“Rule No. 1: Most things will prove to be cyclical. – Rule No. 2: Some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget Rule No. 1.”
-Howard Marks
Tweet
New Zealand is probably off the chart to the right of Norway and Australia.
Charts
A reminder of long-term cyclicality.
Employment choices are made with eyes firmly in the rearview mirror.
Something I'm Pondering
How far Sweden gets with this? Will the rest of Europe see the light, or will it be similar to their stance on lockdowns in which all Western countries shunned them?
I couldn’t have said it better myself.
In a statement announcing the new policy in the Swedish Parliament, Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson warned that the Scandinavian nation needs “a stable energy system.”
Svantesson asserted that wind and solar power are too “unstable” to meet the nation’s energy requirements.
Instead, the Swedish Government is shifting back to nuclear power and has ditched its targets for a “100% renewable energy” supply.
The move is a major blow to unreliable and inefficient technology.
As you’ve got to give it to Sweden, they aren’t afraid to go against the global/western consensus.
Take lockdowns; if you Google it now, you still get a mixed bag of articles saying it was a disaster vs those saying it was the right policy (with the exception of their elderly).
I think the data is pretty clear on what the right choice was.
I’m revisiting this as it will be interesting to see if other European countries follow Sweden’s lead or simply double down.
Sadly I already think I know the answer.
Ideologies don’t change when presented with facts because that’s why they are ideologies.
That said, a lot fewer people are going to be worried about emissions and the environment if the cost of living is soaring and oil is north of $150 per barrel, as history has shown.
I hope you’re all having a great week.
Cheers,
Ferg
P.S. As you are probably now aware, I’m parting ways with Crux Investor (if not, read this) and plan to continue doing my show here on Substack. I’m super grateful for how the launch has gone and planned to finish it today.
Unfortunately, Stripe (Substacks payment processor) is making things difficult. Failed (more like rejected) payments are as high as 18%, with dozens of you messaging me that otherwise valid credit cards are continually rejected. I haven’t had much luck with Stripe support, but now have a secret weapon/chicken that holds more clout with Stripe.
As a result, I’ve extended the 25% discount until the 3rd of July, as hope I will have things with Stripe resolved by then.
As a Swede myself, I want to add some nuance to the information you provided. It is true that the current "center-right" government is slightly more based in actual reality than the former "center-left" government was. Yet you cannot open any Swedish paper---including the daily business paper, a strange mix of "The Wall Street Journal" and the "New York Post"---and avoid everyone and their grandmother (including CEOs of all major companies and politicians of all stripe) heralding the importance of "sustainability," "energy transition," "green agenda," "the savior that is solar and wind" and a whole host of other nonsense, so while it is now acknowledged nuclear should play a role, many throughout society still staunchly oppose it, and everyone is still very much villifying oil & gas. So you are given far more credit to the supposed new-found wisdom of the Swedish government than they deserve. And we are only one election away from the "center-left" parties regaining power, in which case the energy agenda, once again, will be inspired by the likes of Greta Thunberg.
(As a side-note regarding Covid policies, it is another testament to the inherent weirdness of Sweden. Everyone will proudly declare their deep-seated fear for climate change, yet refuse to be alarmed over a somewhat worse-than-normal flu season. I guess the geographic location, and Sweden's agrarian and Lutheran roots still provide a healthy dose of common sense into the fabric of society, along with a stoic-like cultural refusal to be needlessly worked up. America-style alarmism doesn't work here (with perhaps the exception of climate change). And drugs, I suppose, where, despite Sweden being a genuinely socially liberal country, drug consensus would make Richard Nixon seem a Berkeley-style hippie, with cannabis equal to heroin in many people's eyes. Although I hear this is changing amongst Generation Z. But I digress.)
That information on Sweden is fascinating. I remember the Corporate Media blasting Sweden for not doing lockdowns and closing schools. I mentioned this to coworkers (I'm a high school English teacher) and they were horrified, as if school officials over there were simply going to let children perish in broad daylight, without any analysis.
I learned a lot during the Novel Coronavirus Era. One of the many things is how easy it is to manage the Vast Herd of Sheeple by using fear, and it doesn't matter what the facts are. I suspect the investing world is similar, although I'm not an expert or a longtime investor.