I keep having a hard time balancing some "data streams" and opinions on the PRC. Yes, it is a bottleneck, and the sole source of entirely too many things. Great prospects for a rising future, etc. On the other hand, I see a tottering dictatorship undergoing a demographic implosion, exacerbated by an economic situation that makes frontier markets look like a safer bet. Maybe both are happening at once.
I am relatively certain that globalism (in its current form) is fading fast, and I suspect we are seeing the re-emergence of mercantilist trading blocs. This is leading me to "1% positions" in very scary places and things, and your output is extremely useful for this.
And when it comes to China strategically undercutting global competitors to gain market share, industries are often clustered city by city, which makes their supply chain SO much more efficient. Competition is brutal, which makes the best truly the best.
It took decades for this situation to evolve and it appears that the President Trump wants to address it during his 4 years, a likely impossibility to complete the project, but I am thankful that he recognized the issue and is trying to do something about it.
Alas, the hand he was dealt is 2-3-4-6-7 off suit, so hard to win with those cards. the next year should be extraordinarily interesting.
Thanks Andy, yes agree its great Trump is recognising the issue, but as you say 4 years is unworkable especially when you account for the debt, state of US manufacturing, and skilled labour. I think we definitely in for a few extraordinary years.
Ferg-
I keep having a hard time balancing some "data streams" and opinions on the PRC. Yes, it is a bottleneck, and the sole source of entirely too many things. Great prospects for a rising future, etc. On the other hand, I see a tottering dictatorship undergoing a demographic implosion, exacerbated by an economic situation that makes frontier markets look like a safer bet. Maybe both are happening at once.
I am relatively certain that globalism (in its current form) is fading fast, and I suspect we are seeing the re-emergence of mercantilist trading blocs. This is leading me to "1% positions" in very scary places and things, and your output is extremely useful for this.
Thanks--
Rick
Great reminder re: China.
And when it comes to China strategically undercutting global competitors to gain market share, industries are often clustered city by city, which makes their supply chain SO much more efficient. Competition is brutal, which makes the best truly the best.
It took decades for this situation to evolve and it appears that the President Trump wants to address it during his 4 years, a likely impossibility to complete the project, but I am thankful that he recognized the issue and is trying to do something about it.
Alas, the hand he was dealt is 2-3-4-6-7 off suit, so hard to win with those cards. the next year should be extraordinarily interesting.
I do enjoy your framing
Thanks Andy, yes agree its great Trump is recognising the issue, but as you say 4 years is unworkable especially when you account for the debt, state of US manufacturing, and skilled labour. I think we definitely in for a few extraordinary years.