Ferg's Finds
This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.
Article(s)
I'm always happy to see a new piece on the Koperniks site: Don't Cry For Me Argentina (Feb 2024)
Podcast/Video
I'm happy to see Meredith Angwin (Author of "Shorting the Grid" getting the credit she deserves (I had the honour of interviewing Meredith).
Here is a quick summary of her points:
Intermittency of renewables (need 1:1 backup with just-in-time generation).
Issues with just in time nature of natural gas (rarely hear this point).
Relying on neighbours to balance needs (there's a big difference between exporting excess and needing imports in a heat wave/ cold snap).
Quote(s)
“Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment.”
- Will Rogers
Tweet
Christine Guerrero has been all over this.
Charts
Fascinating chart in the different compositions of countries assets. China and Australia are heavily property focused, while the US is all about the equity market.
Something I'm Pondering
I'm pondering where to focus my attention in PMs/metals, as I currently see so much value.
Precious metals with the Shanghai premium sucking physical out of the west.
For a more detailed explanation, here is a cartoon…
Palladium and Platinum: sentiment is in the dumps and I’m interested in this as a way to fade EV demand via the increased demand for catalytic converters for ICE and hybrid vehicles.
Lastly tin, the supply story is fantastic and just keeps getting better. The demand side I’ve been a bit more cautious of given semiconductor sales (decent proxy for tin demand) which ramped 50% in Covid (everyone needing a screen at home) before falling 20% last year. It’s now ramping and if you are bullish the “electrification of everything”, metal glue is the way to play it.
Cheers,
Ferg
P.S. If you’re interested in my story and why I started this Substack, you can read the story here.
Appreciate the link to the great article from Kopernik. Too much intro on Argentina, but the rest is outstanding.
Random comment here but I know you have your interest in the EV transition. Here is the Ram Charger that is built on their current chassis models. It's an EV with about 150 miles of range and a gas engine that serves as a generator. It's amazing Ford didnt think of this when going all in on their lightning truck but when trying to see how the EV transition is going to go, I think this is it. This should put a decent dent in gasoline demand eventually but I don't think it kills the oil thesis by any means. I do think this is something consumers would actually want to use though. Imagine if most cars use this technology and many trucks, that could kill a lot of gasoline demand in say 10-15 years. Smaller batteries too, I know Doomberg has made this point of using smaller batteries for hybrids would kill way more gasoline demand. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxlmjEvaT34