Ferg’s Finds (PGM issue)
This is a short weekly email that covers things I’ve found interesting during the week.
Article
This section caught my attention; declining above-ground stocks combined with steeply declining mine life across most of the PGM majors…
Podcast/Video
Some great platinum insights: Henk de Hoop - The Big Picture on Platinum
Quote
“The projected 2025 deficit of 966 koz will draw stocks down to 2,160 koz, which will cover a mere three months of global platinum demand.”
-WPIC Platinum Quarterly Q1 2025
“The platinum market is forecast to be in a deficit of 297 koz during 2026f, reducing above-ground stocks to under three months of demand.”
The WPIC might as well state the industry is hand-to-mouth (bar China) at this point…
Tweet/Notes
Yes, the below is referencing gold, but it’s even more extreme for PGMs, as China doesn’t have any PGM ETFs/ETCs (they used to have one in Hong Kong, but it was closed).
WPIC: Developments in the China Platinum Market
Physical platinum investment demand is growing rapidly in China while western platinum ETFs are being drained.
Charts
Since I wrote about it here, nothing much has changed. China continues to hoover up physical platinum globally. This is a great website where you can track Chinese premiums for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium.
Something I’m Pondering
I’m pondering how much of global above-ground stocks China now controls?
The only real expert tackling this topic (here) was Dr David Davis, who pegged it at ~80% in December 2023 (he unfortunately passed away in 2024).
The Chinese were already well on their way to cornering it before the launch of GFEX contracts at the end of last which have only accelerated the “one-way valve” I went over here.
What’s worse is when I try to dig into this further (via Claude Research), it just points to some PGM tourist in Bali who’s currently battling jetlag…
Or via meme…
Jokes aside, I’m happy having a decent chunk of my portfolio tied up in this theme and am tempted to add here…
Hope you all have a great week!
Cheers,
Ferg
P.S. Both companies’ trading arms are firing on all cylinders…
Glencore Scores Huge Trading Profits as War Upends Markets
Shell posts best quarterly profit in four years as Iran war boosts oil and gas prices.
“Volatility is the new normal”
-Wael Sawan (Shell CEO)
Excellent write up as always if you were adding to platinum today can you share would you add platinum etf or one of the 2 primary platinum miners ? Hope all is well
am i missing some thing , this has to be the most bullish situation for drillers ive ever seen in my life ,iran demanding 4-7% of the value of every cargo ...good option ...bad option ..endless war and economic collapse ...were will this new found power/control of the four seas end ....and the market is pricing things like the wars over and we are going back to the way it was ????i feel like selling everything but drillers and loading the boat with drillers ....lol and i forgot to mention they are the low cost barrel and that info is getting out there.......lol