Ferg's Finds

This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.

Article(s)

These papers are always a great read: J.P. Morgan 15th Annual Energy Paper March 2025: Heliocentrism

Here are a few of my favorite charts from it.

Importance of generation vs capacity (which gets all the headlines)

Renewable share and electricity prices.

Pragmatic energy policy vs ideology…

Podcast/Video

Fred is a wealth of knowledge when it comes to gold and gold miners: The End Game Ep. 55—Fred Hickey (paywalled podcast) or here: Is a Meltdown in Tech Stocks Nearing as Doubts of A.I.'s Impact Mount?

It’s refreshing actually having competent people in politics for a change: Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!

Quote

This is the best summary of green hydrogen I've come across.

"Electrolyzers, which do not exist, are supposed to use surplus electricity, which does not exist, to feed hydrogen into a network that does not exist in order to operate power plants that do not exist. Alternatively, the hydrogen is to be transported via ships and harbors, which do not exist, from supplier countries, which - you guessed it - also do not exist”

-Hanns Neubert in the June 2024 German MIT Technology Review

Tweet

Earnings for tech companies will be interesting, as Fred Hickey points out that tech companies are going to have little to show in terms of revenue for their collective hundreds of billions of dollars in AI spending.

“When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong.”

-Humphrey B. Neill

Charts

For the rotation to really get under way, the reflexive buy-the-dip crowd is going to have to get carried out.

Tesla’s Retail Fans Buy the Stock at a Pace Never Seen Before

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives on Friday lauded Musk’s efforts for “hand-holding” employees and investors at a key time, and said that if the CEO continued to lead on his vision, the stock will be on a growth path where 90% of its valuation will be led by autonomous-driving technology and robotics.

That market literally no longer exists everywhere Tesla has to compete with BYD which introduced it at no cost (22.5% of Tesla’s revenue is in China and another 22.8% is “rest of world”).

BYD and DeepSeek plan to bring “God’s Eye” autonomous driving features to sub-$10k vehicles

Below is China's passenger vehicle market retail sales for the full year 2024 and YTD 2025.

Something I'm Pondering

I’m pondering how long before markets force Trump and Bessent to fold on their bluff to “detox” markets.

We continue to have high conviction that events will ultimately force Trump and Bessent to choose “inflationary crisis”… but we continue to have low conviction how long the path will be until markets force Trump and Bessent to fold on their bluff to “detox” markets. Until they fold very visibly, believe it is prudent to remain low over our skis for another 2-3 months.

-Luke Gromen

I hope you’re all having a great week.

Cheers,

Ferg

P.S. If you’re interested in my story and why I started this Substack, you can read the story here.