Ferg's Finds
This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.
Article
World’s first ammonia-ready vessel delivered
I continue to watch the Zero-carbon efforts in the shipping/tanker space with interest, as none of the Zero-carbon solutions make any sense to me. If you want an in-depth breakdown of why ammonia is silly, I highly recommend Doombergs piece: Immaculate Combustion.
If you just want a simple visualisation of why it’s silly, this chart does a decent job.
Podcast
Judd is a stud, and this is well worth your time: Judd Arnold: Seeking Convexity in Offshore Energy
Quote
“Money’s greatest intrinsic value, and this can’t be overstated, is it’s ability to give you control over your time.”
— Morgan Housel
Tweet
This "added context" gives me hope that more will start to see through this ideology.
Charts
Read the J.P. Morgan estimates on Chinese coal reduction, which will supposedly occur in one year and eight months.
Then see what they are actually doing.
“China approved the construction of another 106 gigawatts of coal-fired power capacity last year, four times higher than a year earlier and the highest since 2015, driven by energy security considerations, research showed on Monday.”
Something I'm Pondering
I’m pondering if I can incorporate ChatGPT in my process in some way.
Koyfin is one possibility with them introducing Klippy, Koyfin's ChatGPT Assistant. I’m interested in using it as an advanced screener, for example;
“Klippy, which cyclical company has the highest cash per share?”
“Klippy, what is the most deeply contrarian company?”
“Klippy, what company is most hated by investors?”
Another cool way to use ChatGPT is the Youtube Summary with ChatGPT.
It transcribes the entire video, which you can then ask to summarise in a few bullet points.
Other great prompts to get it to break down the video for you are:
“Explain the main points to me like I’m a 10-year-old.”
“Use the Pareto principle to summarise the 20% that matters”
If any of you are aware of more interesting ways to incorporate it into the research process, I’d love to hear from you!
I hope you’re all having a great week.
Cheers,
Ferg
P.S . I first came across Cinnamon's work via Esgian's (she is Esgians Head of Rig Market Research) Youtube channel, which packs a tonne of value and is chronically unfollowed. There is a pile of money to be made in spotting inflections in hated yet cyclical sectors. This is where Cinnamon's 15 years of experience in the sector and focus on the data are hugely valuable. I've relied heavily on her rig utilisation charts for working out the best places to allocate capital in the sector. We dig into operating cost reductions across the space (morphing into cost inflation now), utilisation rates, reactivation costs, order books, replacement costs and further M&A across the sector.
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