Ferg's Finds
This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.
Article(s)
All we hear about is the 15% additional electricity demand via data centres, artificial intelligence and crypto.
The other 85% mostly coming from China and India gets less coverage as its mostly boring stuff like HVAC growth.
Electricity demand in India rose by 7% in 2023 compared to last year’s 8.6%. Continued rapid economic expansion and robust demand for space cooling were the main pillars of growth.
Podcast/Video
I always take the time to listen to interviews with Mike Alkin and this one was a cracker: Uranium Mining all the way to Nuclear Power – Mike Alkin interview.
The fact that there is no clear path to balancing supply with even conservative demand projections, combined with the non-substitutable, price-insensitive nature of fuel buyers, means things will have to get crazy enough for the incentive to be there to close the supply gap.
I've written a few times that the last uranium boom isn't comparable to this market, as there was a surplus in the uranium market from 2005-2007. There was also the functional equivalent of half of Kazatomproms' production or 25% more than Cameco's current production from the Megatons to Megawatts Program to keep the market in surplus.
The 1970s is a better parallel but still not great as the reactor build out ramped with production. Today we have 440 reactors operating and 60 under construction, with a supply gap twice the size of Kazatomprom's production past 2030.
Quote(s)
“The very rich and the very poor both spend most of their time thinking about money.”
-Aaron Haspel
Tweet
Well, it took nearly three years from that Tweet, but we are now seeing big banks "initiating coverage."
Charts/Mag covers
Can Anyone Catch the Cell Phone AI Chip King?
I did take find it interesting Zuckerberg mentioned in this podcast that they would be shifting from Nvidia GPUs to custom silicon soon.
Something I'm Pondering
I’m pondering the effect of AI on the job market.
I’ve posted this chart before illustrating how the most talent pours into a sector based on extrapolating its current prosperity (other side of mining and oil & gas jobs being popular in commodity boom).
This is not particularly insightful, as it's obvious that students will find the most lucrative sectors attractive at any point in time.
What I find more interesting to consider is AI commoditising STEM jobs (Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics).
In this interview, Peter Thiel outlines the idea that AI will have a greater effect on coding and mathematics than on creative fields. AI will automate analytical/mathematical tasks.
Combine this with the "bull market in jobs that shouldn't exist", and you have quite an effect.
What do I mean by jobs that shouldn’t exist?
Here is a meme to explain.
Cheers,
Ferg
P.S. I’ve now put together a directory of all the posts I’ve written.
If you’re interested in my story and why I started this Substack, you can read the story here.
AI won't just be limited to STEM. Its already doing some incredible things in photography and music production. The entire music industry will be shaken up.
Just wanted to highlight, the effect social media and IT are having on peoples patience, regarding their investment timelines. Its mind boggling!