Ferg's Finds
This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.
Article
The Modern World Can't Exist Without These Four Ingredients. They All Require Fossil Fuels
“Four materials rank highest on the scale of necessity, forming what I have called the four pillars of modern civilization: cement, steel, plastics, and ammonia are needed in larger quantities than are other essential inputs.”
Podcast/Video
"Toxic Combo" Of Recent Events To De-Stabilize Markets? | Luke Gromen
Quote
“Sentiment is just a three month trailing average of the price action”
-Gerald Minack
Tweet
So much for the "learning curve".
"While offshore farms are seen as critical to ridding the US power grid of fossil fuels and avoiding the worst effects of climate change, they're also extremely capital- and labour-intensive. In order for the industry to bring future projects to fruition, it's "inevitable" that consumer prices for energy will increase, Nipper said."
Orsted Ready to Abandon US Wind Projects as It Asks for Help
A wind and solar to nuclear pivot is coming for everything green and ESG. Without nuclear clean energy ETFs, AUM will follow Orsteds stock chart.
Charts
I love the simplicity of this chart; as humans, we love to extrapolate the recent past.
Definite Optimism: Wright's Law Predicted 109 Years of Auto Production Costs, and Now Tesla's
Definite Pessimism: Risk of 'Stranded Nations' Highlights Need for Sovereign Wealth Funds to Prepare for the Age of Green Energy
Something I'm Pondering
I’m pondering a point made by Christopher Joye on Grant Williams Podcast, that inflation is likely to be far sticker than we might expect given the bull market in unproductive jobs.
There is no better example of this than Elon firing 80% of the Twitter workforce and things carrying on as normal.
In a twisting and wide-ranging two-hour interview with the BBC, arranged just minutes in advance, the billionaire Tesla boss said staff numbers at the social media site had been slashed from just shy of 8,000 to around 1,500 in a bid to accelerate the firm’s drive to profitability, a move which he described as “painful” and “not fun at all.”
Bull Market in Fiat Jobs vs Bear Market in Real Jobs
Cheers,
Ferg
If you’re interested in my story and why I started this Substack, you can read the story here.
I'd listened to the Chris Joye interview with Grant. The topic that you highlight hit me like a punch to the face when Chris discussed it. Doomberg has also picked up on this. When you look at things through this lens, everything makes sense and I see this all around me. Inflation ain't coming down easily ... then you look at the utter failure of the ESG green energy nonsense (e.g. offshore wind and German solar farms failing) and us old school energy investors are looking pretty good right now.
That interview with Luke was fantastic. Thanks for sharing!