Ferg's Finds

This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.

Article(s)

I loved this paper as this was the first time I had seen coal's performance over this period. What was impressive wasn't only the fact it was the best performer but took off a good 3-4 years before oil, mines, and value ramped up.

GMO White Paper Part 2: What to do in the case of sustained inflation

Podcast/Video

A rare Munger podcast interview; if nothing else, it's impressive how sharp Charlie is at 99 years old.

Quote

“My edge lies in the fact I can sit on my hands when you can't.”

-Tom Dante

Tweet

I continue to watch Denmark closely as nobody (bar Germany) has more invested in the wind industry.

Charts

Buy technology and sell energy continues to be the consensus allocation for now.

Something I'm Pondering

I've already pointed to a number of articles (here & here) of wind developers being dumpster fires for shareholders.

What I haven't touched on for a while is the fact that Denmark has the best conditions for generating wind in the world, and it still isn't working.

Yet we are still supposed to believe it will scale massively in the likes of India, China and South East Asia, which have the lowest wind speeds globally.

It's a simple point, but I don't see anyone making it.

Solar has similar issues as the Europeans are pushing it the hardest yet are the least suited to solar globally (Germany achieves a 10% average* capacity factor on its solar, which is beyond a joke).

*a 10% average is heavily weighted to summer generation, with little in winter when they are supposed to be adding generation to switch from gas to heat pumps.

Hope you’ve had a great weekend.

Cheers,

Ferg 

P.S. I had a great chat with Shubham Garg on the outlook for oil and gas. Shubham is my go-to guy for breaking down what's happening with oil and gas, particularly in the US and Canada.

If you’re interested in my story and why I started this Substack, you can read the story here.