Ferg's Finds

This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.

Article

I'm paying close attention to Modi's goal for India to be a developed economy by 2047.

How India Can Take China's Growth Crown; as per the below chart, energy infrastructure investment alone is now larger than the combined previous infrastructure investment.

Podcast/Video

Since I’ve been talking about physical precious metals storage I’ve been recommended to watch this: The Great Taking - Documentary

It certainly made me rethink what I actually own if everything goes to shit.

Quote(s)

“In times of rapid change, experience can be your worst enemy.”

- John Paul Getty

I got this quote from A Few Things, where I always enjoy the weekly emails.

It made me think of this Druckenmiller story:

After about a year and a half -I was a banking and a chemical analyst -this guy calls me into his office and announces he’s going to make me the director of research, and these other eight guys and my 52-year-old boss are going to report to me. So, I started to think I’m pretty good stuff here. But he instantly said, “Now, do you know why I’m doing this?” I said no. He says, “Because for the same reason they send l8-year-olds to war. You’re too dumb, too young, and too inexperienced not to know to charge. We around here have been in a bear market since 1968.” This was 1978. “I think a big secular bull market’s coming. We’ve all got scars. We’re not going to be able to pull the trigger. So, I need a young, inexperienced guy. But I think you’ve got the magic to go in there and lead the charge.”

Tweet

There is a lot of value in having people you respect on a commodity's bull and bear sides. I've been more in the bull camp, but know Alexander comes packing the data.

Charts

The denial of this trend is a big investment opportunity, as no amount of "just transition" scenarios from IEA or BloombergNEF changes the cold, hard reality of what's playing out.

India Set to See Biggest Jump in Coal-Fired Power In a Decade

Since I've been following this story, it's been revised from 48GW to 80GW to now 90GW.

India said last year that it plans to add close to 90 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity by 2032, lifting a forecast from just months before by more than half. The country has 28.5 gigawatts of coal power currently being built and more than 50 gigawatts that are planned to be awarded for construction over the next three years, according to the people.

Something I'm Pondering

I’m pondering where all this additional coal is going to come from?

“To meet growing demand,” the Indian government said on Dec. 11 it expects to roughly double coal production, reaching 1.5 billion tons by 2030. Later, the power minister Raj Kumar Singh set out plans on Dec. 22 to add 88 gigawatts of thermal power plants by 2032. The vast majority of which will burn coal.

It will be interesting to track India's coal production vs coal imports moving forward.

I hope you’re all having a great week.

Cheers,

Ferg

P.S. It's now been a year since I launched this Substack, and I'm super grateful for all your support! I couldn't be more lucky as I get to fill my day with everything I love: spending time with Mia and Hugo, doing BJJ and trying to figure out niche corners of the market.

I'm barely computer illiterate and can't market/sell to save myself, so I am fortunate Substack came along. One recommendation I got when launching this was to raise the monthly price to close to annual to lower the churn of people subscribing to copying portfolios and cancelling. This seemed backward to me as subscribers should be able to cancel anytime but chose not to as the value is there (a year in, and I was surprised at how low the monthly churn is).

Anyway this is just to say I appreciate you all for following/supporting my work and I’m now off to the beach to run my dog and toddler.