Ferg's Finds

This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.

Article

Horizon Kinetics and Goehring & Rozencwajg quarterlies are always a joy to work through with a coffee in the morning.

Horizon Kinetics 4th Quarter 2022 Commentary

The End of Abundant Energy: Shale Production and Hubbert's Peak

Podcast

MacroVoices #366 Louis-Vincent Gave: Staying Humble in Troubling Times

Quote

“We do the worst possible thing at the worst possible time because we are most certain that we are right just when we are most likely to be wrong.”

- Jason Zweig

Tweet

I liked the idea of “certainty theatre” so much that I did a Crux show on it, which is now available on Youtube.

Charts

“Going into the pandemic, households in China had about 8 to 9 trillion RMB in cash in their bank accounts. Today that number is 15.5 trillion. It has gone up more than 50%, because for three years all that people did was work and go home. They are more cashed up than ever before.”

Something I'm Pondering

I’m pondering what will happen when the below offshore rig utilisation occurs with an oil price that runs north of $100 barrel

Westwood Insight – Global marketed offshore rig utilisation to average 95% in 2023

Oil services outperformance has surprised me with a weak oil price.

This continues to be the big opportunity in my eyes and where I’ve put all my attention the last few months.

I hope you’re all having a great week.

Cheers,

Ferg 

P.S . I’ve been making some big changes to my portfolio lately in light of the opportunities I’m seeing. Everyone loves a good discount sale on the back of a panic so I go over my buy list and the prices I’d be backing up the truck prior to the market opening with the current banking debacle.

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