Ferg's Finds
This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.
Article(s)
Goehring & Rozencwajg's latest commentary:
“It is a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth.”
-William Stanley Jevons, The Coal Question, 1865.
This was easily my favourite section in the report, as name me another entity that has made the same mistake 12 out of 14 years and still hasn't corrected it…
That said, the IEA is in perpetual denial of this as they need the efficiency gains to make their models work.
Podcast/Video
Mark Mills: The energy transition delusion: inescapable mineral realities
Quote(s)
“The best measure of wealth is what you have minus what you want, and by this measure, some billionaires are broke.”
- Morgan Housel
Tweet
Charts
Love and hate this chart from @thomasg_grizzle
Some will interpret as a case to LOLO moose pasture.
My take is to scale out of quality first so to have a small percentage of moose pasture to feed the retail frenzy with in the later stages of the bull market.
Something I'm Pondering
Every thermal coal forecast I've managed to get my hands on has coal imports to China flat on the assumption they can keep up with the demand growth via domestic mining.
This chart tells a different story.
In Goehring & Rozencwajg's latest commentary there was this quote;
“From through to peak, coal equities have been the best-performing sector in every commodity bull market since 1900.”
I’m intrigued why this has played out repeatedly as ESG/Green transition wouldn’t have been restricting CAPEX in prior bull markets.
Hope you’re all having a great week.
Cheers,
Ferg
P.S. If you’re interested in my story and why I started this Substack, you can read the story here.
Any coal co’s you like?