This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.
We need more quality debates like this: Debate On "Peak Cheap Oil": Fact Or Overblown Fear? | Doomberg vs Adam Rozencwajg
“The intelligent investor is a realist
who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”
In Germany, the stupidity continues.
One of my interests has been trying to wrap my head around where China might be on its coal production trajectory. As if I get this right, the boost we have seen in coal imports could be a long tailwind.
Something I'm Pondering
I'm pondering how much longer Tesla can sustain its valuation.
Big Market Delusion: Electric Vehicles: The "big market delusion" is when all firms in an evolving industry rise together, although as competitors, ultimately, some will win and some will lose.
We are seeing this gap open up: Ford Lost $4.7B On EVs Last Year, Or About $64,731 For Every EV It Sold
Then consider Toyota, which has copped a lot of abuse for not embracing EVs (they where 0.92% of sales in 2023), and Toyota forecasts 10% rise in profits this fiscal year.
With BYD producing cars at roughly half the price of Tesla, the writing is on the wall (especially when considering the monopoly China has on the majority of battery metals).
I hope you're all having a great week (I apologise for being slow with output, as I've been laid out in bed with a fever for a few days now.)
P.S. this week, I want to point you to my friend Paulo Macro, who has recently launched a Substack (I highly recommend you check it out and consider becoming a paying member, as Paulo has been relentlessly pumping out quality content on Twitter for years).