Ferg's Finds

This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.

Article

Surprisingly good read from CNN: The Kremlin has never been richer – thanks to a US strategic partner

The analysis by the CREA estimated the US was the biggest buyer of refined products from India made from Russian crude last year, worth $1.3 billion between early December 2022, when the price cap was introduced, and the end of 2023. The organization’s estimates are based on publicly available shipping and energy data.

The value of these oil product exports rises significantly once US allies that are also enforcing sanctions against Russia are included. The CREA estimated that $9.1 billion worth of oil products made from Russian crude was imported by these nations in 2023, a 44% increase from the year before.

Podcast/Video

Luke Gromen: Bond market squeezing into stocks, gold, BTC; gold/oil ratio breaking out

For years, I believed this chart would mean revert down to around 10 barrels per ounce of gold. More recently, I've come around to Luke's view that this ratio is going to blow out and end up somewhere between 100 and 200 barrels per ounce of gold.

Quote(s)

“Oil is nature's discount rate.

Assets all have it implied in their value, a growing abundant source of oil.”

-Luke Gromen

Tweet

IEA forecasts continue to get run over by reality.

Charts

I agree with this take.

Something I'm Pondering

I’ve been seeing these type of articles with increasing frequency, Study shows 130 countries exploring central bank digital currencies or Saudi Arabia joins BIS- and China-led central bank digital currency project.

You can even track global CBDCs development/progress on this website.

What I’m pondering is that what if there is a alternative to inflating the debt back to a manageable level? What if that alternative is a forced transition to CBDCs (what India managed to do never ceases to amaze me) . There definitely is historic precedent for it, as Dr Pippa outlines in this old piece I tracked down:

From Tally Sticks to Blockchain – The Redenomination of Your Entire Life (updates below)

One way to deal with the epic debt is to simply abandon the traditional system of money and accounting and adopt a new one. It sounds impossible but, we are about to go through this transition.

It last happened last in when the British faced 200 years of unpayable war debts in 1829. The British Government came up with a clever idea. Why not print pieces of paper called "cash"? But no one wanted to give up the system that had worked perfectly well for a 1000 years. The system of money and accounting at that time was called the "Talley Stick" system. No one wanted to give up their talley sticks in exchange for a potentially worthless piece of paper.

So, the British simply confiscated the sticks. Everyone’s wealth and assets were suddenly redenominated in something new - cash. We too will wake up one morning to find that we no longer use “cash”. Instead, we’ll all have electronic money and blockchain. Yes, we already know that this is the name of the new system of money and accounting.

Between Pippa’s and Luke’s insights I think I need to stock up on some more physical precious metals…

I hope you’re all having a great week.

Cheers,

Ferg

P.S. I now have a directory for all my articles (free and paid). Or if you’re interested in my story and why I started this Substack, you can read the story here.