Ferg's Finds

This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.

Article(s)

I generally try to avoid politics, but this piece was insightful:  Dr Pippa: And the winner is Kennedy….

It also led me to this, which is an acknowledgement of what has been evident for a while: The hard truth: Americans don't trust the news media

Most people believe the media is biased. Anyone who doesn't see this is paying scant attention to reality, and those who fight reality lose. Reality is an undefeated champion

-Jeff Bezos

While Bezos is talking media, I see this extending to green policies, ESG, and DEI, which all ignore basic economics.

Take Germany, where the average voter is no longer buying these headlines: Germany moves to strengthen domestic wind power industry

The German voter is realising this isn't a subsidy to help achieve exit velocity for "the cheapest energy source". This is life support which shows up in their energy bill.

Podcast/Video

Listening to this in addition to the above piece is a must: MacroVoices #453 Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Unconventional Insights on US Presidential Election

Quote

“Inflation consists of subsidizing expenditures that give no returns with money that does not exist.”

― Jacques Rueff

Tweet

I put this chart in my recent piece with the point being you can't trust energy media (I also made the point with AI).

How can you take a report seriously when the analyst plays with reality?

• Why did they exclude all the waste rock that occurs when mining critical minerals?

• Why did they exclude steel and aluminium? (also concrete and silicon).

Why? Because reality doesn’t fit the narrative (see the chart below from an old Tweet)

Charts

Americans' Trust in Media Remains at Trend Low

No surprise. The younger the age group, the lower the trust.

That’s one hell of a gap.

Something I'm Pondering

I’m pondering how the failure of uneconomic green policies will force demand to be revised up for fossil fuels and nuclear.

• Trump Pledges to End the 'Green New Scam'

• Europe Braces for a Stiff Climate Backlash

An obvious one being green hydrogen which without subsidy support is dead in the water.

A less obvious one is the high percentage of onshore wind, which requires repowering/life extensions or decommissioning in the next few years.

Germany and Spain have high proportions of their onshore wind nearing the end of life.

When I first saw the chart below, it made me think of shale oil's steep decline rates vs conventional oil, which is a decent parallel for coal, gas and nuclear power plants with 40year+ lifespans.

One of the easier green demand revisions to calculate from my recent piece is PGM demand as every million PHEVS in place of BEVs adds 150,000 ounces of PGM demand.

I hope you’re all having a great week.

Cheers,

Ferg 

P.S. I want to say a massive thank you to all of you who reached out to offer help and advice for Mia's back issues. We’ve put a lot of it into practice. Her progress is slow, but with the help of a great specialist and physio, she is now managing short walks, and we're hoping surgery is off the table.