Ferg's Finds
This is a short weekly email that covers a few things I’ve found interesting during the week.
Article
Great overview just as the rubber seems to be meeting the road in the uranium market: The Uranium Bull: Defying Trends and Redefining Energy Markets
Podcast/Video
There are only a couple of guys I take the time to listen to on uranium, and Mike is at the top of that list: Kuppy and Mike Alkin “Uranium” Interview at the 2023 World Nuclear Association Symposium
Quote
"There is no reason we can't design a car to last for 35 years instead of six or seven."
-Vaclav Smil
This caught my attention as how much of what we consume today directly results from planned obsolescence?
I've just bought a new Macbook and noticed that each Macbook I've owned has lasted a year or so less than the previous one. I know this is the current consumer/growth model with assumed 'abundant resources'. What if there was an alternative system based on quality and longevity…. crazy I know.
Tweet
Offshore sentiment check
And another one, as Esgian puts out the best insights on the sector for free and there is crickets…
Charts
85% of funds own Microsoft, it is currently 6.5% of the S&P500 and 12.9% of the NASDAQ.
“Priced to perfection” can be as simple as running out of marginal buyers.
Something I'm Pondering
I’m pondering the premature extrapolation of renewables and EVs.
As for those of you not aware this is not the first attempted energy transition.
It's just the one we've thrown the most money at, which doesn't change the cold, hard reality of physics.
Wind power, particularly offshore looks to be the first extrapolation to implode; take Doomberg's latest piece:
"Multiple offshore wind projects that are not even built yet have asked the state's Public Service Commission (PSC) to renegotiate their strike prices—the amount they will be paid per megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity produced. (A megawatt hour is roughly enough electricity to power 750 homes for one hour.)
Ørsted and Eversource have asked for a 27 percent increase for their Sunrise Wind project, which would raise their strike-price from around $110 to nearly $140 per MWh. And the joint venture of Equinor and BP has asked for increases on all three of the projects it is developing. For Empire Wind 1, they want a 35 percent increase that would raise its strike-price from $118 to almost $160, for Empire Wind 2 a 66 percent increase that would bring its strike-price from $107.50 to almost $178, and for Beacon Wind a 62 percent increase to lift its strike-price from $118 to over $190."
Yet some how EV adoption rarely seems to get questioned. Issues such as price parity with ICE vehicles, range, charging time, lack of transmission infrastructure, and material can't stand in the way of a good extrapolation.
As always, I'm on the lookout for where I could be wrong, and the BYD Seagull certainly has my attention at a price of $10,200-12,400 USD with a 305-405km range that would certainly be competitive if not cheaper than comparable ICE vehicles. It's also running on a lithium iron phosphate battery, so there are no nickel or cobalt limitations.
Hope you’ve all had a great weekend and may energy keep ripping!
Cheers,
Ferg
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Word on the street is that the first two rows of the offshore conference were reserved for CEOs, CFOs, etc... I am told the rest of the room was quite full.